Situation Awareness or “How to win an election without really trying!”
How could the Tories be so certain that they would win a General Election? The answer is “Situation Awareness”. You just need to read up on Dominic Cummings’ blog about his Voter Intention Collection System on how it was used in the Vote Leave campaign and how it was re-used for GE2019.
On October 24th, 2019 – there were fears of electoral chaos…
General election: Proposal for snap vote in December sparks fears of electoral roll chaos
Warnings of polling station shortages and administrative mix-ups amid mounting speculation of pre-Christmas poll
“Britain is facing the possibility of electoral chaos if Boris Johnson pushes ahead with plans for a December general election…. A pre-Christmas snap election would force officials to use two different electoral registers to manage voting, potentially leading to confusion and delays…. The electoral roll is updated annually on 1 December, meaning the new register would be in place in time to be used for a possible election… However, polling cards for an early December election would need to be sent out in November, meaning one electoral register would be used for sending the cards and another used for the actual election… It means that people could see their polling cards, which include details of where they should go to vote, sent to their old address… Peter Stanyon, chief executive of the Association of Electoral Administrators, which represents returning officers, said a poll in December would… risked people being wrongly marked as having voted when they had not.“
Would this bother the Conservatives? Obviously not, who are most likely to one of the 9 million voters elible to vote but not correctly registerd? The poor (in rented accomodation) or youngsters – both demographics likely to vote Labour. As the article says “You shouldn’t have to opt in to your right to vote. As the Electoral Commission note, we need to move towards automatic registration now, starting with being able to check you are registered online, and being able to register whenever you engage with government bodies or services. We know this works from other countries.” So the information is available of where the voters are and whether they mismatch the electoral rolls… I bet this information had been captured for complete situation awareness of Voter Intentions! It could even by itself explain the drop in the number of Labour votes…
But there is more. Chaos does not increase confidence… only order and control provides confidence. November 2019, Tories predicted an 80 seat majority. A lousy campaign later, #Trustgate, #Wreathgate, Boy on Hospital floor, #Fridgegate etc Dominic Cummings #VICS system gave them exactly an 80 seat majority. That is some “situation awareness”! This level of estimation requires computers especially since the Tories had no ground camapign in the north! They had every voter identified, every voter’s politics analysed by computer, every intention to vote predicted or persuaded or impersonated or blocked. Rigged? You bet!