Election 2020 Big Data Wars

As the Washington Post reports “Trump lost at the ballot box. His legal challenges aren’t going any better”. Two weeks after the election, it really does look like Biden is on the way to the White House. (Collective sigh of relief).

It’s interesting isn’t it: Donald Trump knows the election was rigged because he was party to rigging it! Besides Gerrymandering, the Republican Party Speciality for winning elections is Voter Suppression. They used to good effect in 2000, 2004 and 2016. They have also tried to hack the count in 2012 leaving Karl Rove spluttering when it was foiled. The method worked so well in 2004 too just ask John OConnell – oh right you can’t, he died in an air crash just before giving evidence on the subject…

Since 2012, there has been a fix to the Man-in-the-Middle attack used by Republicans, so that is unlikely to be used again but on the other hand there is the developments by Cambridge Analytica of using Big Data and pyschographics to assess Voter Intentions.

Voting by Mail has several weaknesses that allow ballot stuffing. Big Data has made it easy to manipulate Mail-In ballots and make election fraud by mail almost undetectable.

Donald Trump had used Big Data (via Cambridge Analytica) in 2016. He would have had excellent information on Voter Intention. He knew the vote would be close in 2020. So his strategy COULD have been:

  • Voter Suppression of Minorities (the Republicans know how to do this)
  • Rally the Troops using Targeted (via Big Data) Social Media ads and bots
  • Tell his supporters NOT to mail-in ballots
  • Declare that all Mail-in Ballots are potential fraud
  • Fight the close elections in courts knowing that he has stacked the Supreme Court with HIS people.

Donald Trump really didn’t make this strategy much of a secret. And giving credit where it is due, Trump did exceedingly well. From the UK side of the Atlantic it is difficult to see his appeal but he has been able to galvinise Republican voters in ways the Bushes and other GOP politicians could not. Fox News, targetted ads and the election machinery (yep, bots!) got his base out and actually Trump got a huge endorsement from the USA voting population. Extraordinary figures! The second largest vote in history.

The Democrats, at least, had seen it coming. Equipped with voter intentions from Big Data, Biden et al must have seen how close the election would be (despite the pollsters claiming Biden had a 6 or 7 point lead). But Trump is a divisive figure and it was easy to motivate the Democrat base too: Biden winning with the largest ever total given to a US politician.

And fraud? Not likely much was going on from the Democrats. They were able to spot where voter suppression has occurred and undo it. Thereafter encouraging just their supporters to vote (identified by Big Data); Making it easy to vote either in person or via mail. If you know you are going to win, then you don’t have to stuff ballot papers! There is still some “fraud” by stealing privacy and using psychographics to derive voter intentions – but is an untraceable crime – it is not “election fraud” by any current definition.

Rather than revealing widespread — or even isolated — fraud, the effort by Trump’s legal team has so far done the opposite: It’s affirmed that Trump lost. Nearly every GOP challenge has been tossed out. Not a single vote has been overturned.

Looking Forward

Trump… what a terrible President. But there was one thing he was good at: Not going to War! Biden on the other hand has surrounded himself with War Hawks… oh dear… but let’s be optimistic… at least, for the time being.